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The problem with headlines…

November 30, 2011

By Dick Baker


The problem with headlines…

They rarely convey the whole story, just as the one above does not.  The problem is that most people don’t read far beyond headlines to digest the nitty gritty details they refer to.

Well, they’re at it again.  A headline in Wednesday’s Business section of a local newspaper proclaimed “Region fares poorly as home selling prices drop”. Granted, the local real estate market hasn’t been on fire this year, but our “region fares poorly…”? The body of the article states that our metro area recorded a 3.86% decrease in prices, then two paragraphs later quotes the nationwide drop as 3.7%.  Well, we did underachieve compared to the rest of the nation . . . by sixteen hundredths of one percent.

Clearly our industry faces challenges, primarily due to economic conditions.  But let’s not forget that there is a positive side to declining prices – it is truly a great time to buy!  Not only are prices down relative to recent years, but inventory is high (lots of great houses to choose from) and mortgage interest rates are at fire sale levels historically speaking.  And contrary to myth, mortgage money IS available.

The Toledo Region has many great things going for it, including affordable housing.  For a look at a freshly launched web site describing our region, go to http://toledoregion.com.

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Clocks “falling back”; leaves being picked up; turkeys getting nervous…

November 4, 2011

By Dick Baker



and a chill is in the air – all telltale signs that the seasons are changing on us!

So what’s a homeowner to do?  Plenty!  Some tasks are for do-it-yourselfers and weekend warriors; others are for pros.

Many homeowners in the northeast just got a cruel reminder of one task that is often overlooked. Take a look at the trees and branches overhanging your home and power lines.  We are as likely to get a wet snow or ice while leaves remain on trees as they were in New England, and that can lead to major headaches (and power outages).  Summertime shade is nice, but trees providing that shade should be kept away from the house.  They can do damage to your roof or other structures in a storm; they fill the gutters with leaves and pine needles; they can even provide a convenient pathway for varmints to gain access to cozy areas of your home for the coming season.  So trim back, and use good judgment in determining whether this is a job you can safely handle or whether you should whistle in a reputable, insured professional.

Another sometimes forgotten detail:  what to do with unused lawn chemicals. Fertilizers can still be spread, but Roundup, dandelion killer, insect controls and others can still be found in my garage.  I’ll gather them up and store them in the basement so they don’t freeze in the garage, but if you have old chemicals, why not get rid of them, properly.  If you live in Lucas County, here is a resource: Links to Solid Waste Management Related Sites

There are loads of other suggestions that can be found on Internet checklists, particularly dealing with issues of water intrusion, chimneys, and roofing issues.  Oh, one more suggestion that doesn’t make most lists – clean and store your golf clubs in a climate-controlled area. OK, I added that one. ‘Tis the season, let’s button up for the winter!

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The Times, They Are A Changin’

October 28, 2011

By Dick Baker

This is not your parents’ real estate market!

Just as Bob Dylan’s lyrics warned us decades ago, “The times, they are a-changin’.”

Having plied the real estate trade in the Toledo area for more than 4 decades and as co-owner of the region’s largest real estate company, I am more than a casual observer from a historical perspective.  Let me share just a few thoughts about how our industry and the local marketplace have changed.

As a kid Realtor, a 20% down payment was pretty much expected, unless you had such squeaky clean credit that you could pass the scrutiny to qualify for 90% financing, requiring Private Mortgage Insurance.  Anyone remember MGIC?  3% down payments have been common lately, and less than that leading up to the mortgage market disasters of a few years ago.

Many vivid memories come from the previous worst market I’d seen, the early 80’s when interest rates not only went double digit, they went to the high teens!  Do people understand today’s opportunities? Long term fixed rate mortgages have been found starting with a “3”!  The conventional wisdom in those early 80’s was that only a riverboat gambler would consider an adjustable rate mortgage.  “Wisdom”, a misnomer.

Long ago most sellers wouldn’t even consider FHA and VA offers, since they took months to close and appraisals typically came back with lengthy laundry lists of repairs if you hoped to close.  Now those loans make up the majority of mortgages!

And those “short sales” we hear so much about today . . . we’d never heard the term before.

Clearly, times have changed, but never before have I seen some of the opportunities that exist in today’s market.

I would be remiss in these musings if I didn’t end with additional lyrics from the song of singer/songwriter/philosopher/economist Dylan quoted above:

“Come senators, congressmen, Please heed the call; Don’t stand in the doorway, Don’t block up the hall…”

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2011 Real Estate Outlook – Trends and Predictions

January 28, 2011

By Dick Baker

We must begin with the obvious disclaimer that economic forecasting is more inexact than weather forecasting, but we will take our best guess at what lies ahead of us in the coming year. We follow many analysts, remembering however that conventional wisdom told us one year ago that mortgage interest rates would rise by July when in fact they declined to historically low levels and stayed there.

Pending home sale numbers have risen for 5 consecutive months nationwide, and there is reason for optimism regarding sales within our region as well. Unemployment numbers, while still very high, have improved. No matter how you feel about the recent elections, it appears that the result is pro-business, less tax, which logically should improve private sector job creation through 2012. The American Dream of home ownership is alive and well, and demographics suggest increased demand in the future. There is reason for improved consumer confidence. With these factors at work, prices should begin to rise slowly again, especially as unsold inventories decrease.

Two factors may work against the improving market, at least in the very near term.  We cannot ignore the seasonality of the market.  Winter months are routinely the least active of the year.  And mortgage rates have crept upward from their lows.  However, many of us contrarians feel that this interest rate movement may actually convince reluctant buyers to get off the fence, the worst is behind us and it’s time to buy their home while rates are still extremely attractive from a historical viewpoint.

My conclusion:  we hit bottom, but without much of a bounce.  Remember however that compared to others, our region has tended to be the tortoise, not the hare. In some respects that can be a good thing.  Just ask those in Las Vegas or many areas of Florida that continue moving in the wrong direction.

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A safe home for the holidays!

December 9, 2010

By Dick Baker

Fireplaces, candles, frayed wires, oh my!

‘Tis the season for many things, and keeping your home and family safe should be right near the top of the list.  What could possibly go wrong when we bring dead trees into our homes, light lots of extra candles, plug dozens of additional cords into our outlets and leave fires burning in the fireplace while we catch a few winks on the couch?

These are tough economic times and we want to keep our fire fighters and police officers employed, just not working.  So let’s be sensible about hazards that are common this time of year.  If you buy a live tree, make sure it’s fresh and that you give it plenty of water, probably a couple times a day.  You’ve probably heard this freshness test before – just bend a needle in half and if it snaps, keep looking. 

Now the tree is in the house – make sure your lights are in good working order and you haven’t overloaded circuits.  Same rules outdoors, Clark! 

OK, I’m off to Gramma’s house now. . . well, not really, but this raises another point.  How many times have you read on Facebook or other social media something like “Yippee, we’re off to Florida for a week!”  What do you suppose that tells a bad guy who reads that post?  It’s a sad commentary, but home burglaries are on the rise during the holidays, sometimes because we announce to the world that “Nobody will be home at our house for several days, so come and get it!”  And some of us have perfectly functional alarm systems but don’t even bother to set them.  Let’s use common sense!

Finally, it’s a season to entertain – let’s drink responsibly, and keep an eye on each other. Have a wonderful, safe holiday!

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Editorial—one man’s opinion

October 7, 2010

By Lynn Fruth

The great thing about opinions is that everyone is entitled to one. My concern has to do with the continued intervention by government into the private sector and in particular the housing market. Although ailing tremendously, the real estate industry does not need more government intervention. The market has to sort itself out and that can be a long and painful process. Intervention such as the recent home buyer tax credits may provide short term stimulation but has seemingly only borrowed sales from the future. One could argue that it was government’s desire in the last decade to increase home ownership by reducing qualifying loan guidelines that got us into this mess.

 National politicians, no matter how noble their intentions, need to stand back and let the economy sort itself out. We need fiscal restraint (less spending) and the last thing that we need is to increase taxes and regulations on small businesses, the creators of most of the jobs in this country. Federal regulations are choking small business, especially manufacturing, making them less competitive and often resulting in them leaving this country. There are plenty of laws on the books to deal with abuses we do not need any more, especially now. The same can be said regarding any kind of tax increases for the near term.

-Lynn Fruth

This editorial is a short excerpt from the upcoming Danberry Realtors Real Estate Report Fall Newsletter.  If you’ve missed the last issue, find it online here: http://www.danberry.com/newsletters/

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